Election 2016 - Week 1 in review.

"Oh, a cutesie photo op... Must. Act. Human."

The wait for the date
So it's finally here. After months of foreplay, teasing and plenty of false starts, Enda finally got round to calling that dastard election on Wednesday last. He marched into Leinster House, announced he was heading to the Áras to request the dissolution of the Dáil and marched out almost as quick, with his frontbench and Tánaiste in tow. It was swift. The opposition were frustrated that they weren't afforeded a chance to offer their statements in the Dáil on the parliament's dissolution and railed against Enda for his lack of respect for the lower house. If they've been paying attention for the last number of years, they won't have been surprised. 

But Enda hadn't a care in the world as he bid Joan Burton a fond farewell on the steps of Leinster House while he attended to business."This is not goodbye" he reassured her graciously, as he shook her hand in what was totally not a photo op. Joan looked a tad bemused but dutiful; a good metaphor for her party's five years in office. While Enda had announced that he was dissolving the Dáil at Leinster House, he announced the date of the election on Twitter, of all places. Disappointingly, he didn't use any emojis. In fact Enda's lucky he announced it now and not in a few months by which time Twitter will have introduced their algorithm timeline; there's good chance nobody would have seen it then and all us politicos would still be here twiddling our thumbs.

Each week during the campaign I'll endeavour to update this blog as regularly as possible with half-baked political analysis, hapless predictions and low-brow jokes. I'll end each week with one of these reviews and at the end of it all, I'll have a review of the entire campaign. This is going to be the shortest general election campaign in Irish history but that doesn't mean we can't pack plenty in. By the end of the month, I hope you'll be as uninformed making your choice at the ballot box as you are now! 

Black hole in the Government's fiscal space

"And the two words the random jargon generator came up with were 'fiscal' and 'space'".

The sums behind Fine Gael's long-term economic policy being outed as wrong in the first week of the election campaign by, of all people, Sinn Féin sounds like the kind of nightmare that would wake Michael Noonan up in a cold sweat late at night. But it actually happened. This time last week I, like most of the country, had no idea what the incredibly vague term 'fiscal space' meant but now it's all too familiar. It's the money the next government will have to spend on stuff they promise in this election campaign outside of their current budgetary obligations and is dependent on the economy growing at 3% annually. Sounds simple, right? So why did it cause so much controversy? 

Well, to put it simply, the government parties orginally overstimated the amount of money they would have available to them by a cool €2bn. Michael Noonan, in his speech at the Fine Gael ard fheis last month said that the amount of money available to the next government would be, "€12bn over the five years from 2017 to 2021". Brendan Howlin, similarly, at his party conference said that the next government would have a "fiscal space of €12 billion".

That figure has since turned out to be baloney. 

The gross fiscal space available to the government, as calculated by the Department of Finance, is €10.6bn. Included is this figure is €2bn which would be available to the government if they do not index taxes over the next five years (The indexing of taxes involves adjusting the tax bands with the rate of inflation). Also included is €1.4bn which the government expects to be available to them once the EU relaxes its fiscal policy for countries over the next few weeks. The government, however, double-counted the €2bn available from the non-indexing of taxes. They seemed not to have realised that it was already included yet in the €10.1bn and added it on to make a fiscal space of just over €12bn. Bored yet? You should be. 

Of course, all this is actually quite important as if even the government parties can't calculate how much money is available to us to spend on tax cuts or increases in public spending over the next number of years, it doesn't bode very well, does it? Also significant is that Sinn Féin were the ones who called the government parties out on their double-counting. Deary me, can you imagine the consternation at Fine Gael HQ? The shinners schooling the blueshirts in economics. In their eyes it's like Michael D Higgins teaching Lebron James how to dunk. In the past, Fine Gael has accused Sinn Féin of engaging in "fantasy economics" while just this week Minister for Transport Pascal Donohue said that Sinn Féin's economic policies "read like checklist for destruction". 

Fine Gael have kind-of, sort-of back-tracked. They're now claiming the fiscal space is €10.1bn while Michael Noonan is bullish and adamant that he didn't even get his sums wrong in the first place. At the launch of Fine Gael's fancy new long term economic plan on Friday, Noonan said, "First of all, the comments that my figures don’t stack up, that’s not correct. I totally and completely stand over the figures." It's the Shaggy defence - while all the evidence might point to your being wrong, just deny, deny, deny. Oversetimating my fiscal space? Wasn't me.



The puzzling beauty of Alan Kelly

"But I suppose the best thing about me is my modesty."

Did you read Alan Kelly's interview with Niamh Horan in last week's Sunday Independent? If not, you really should. It's the stuff of dreams. The stuff of political correspondent's dreams, anyway. They know that as long as this fella sticks around the political scene they're not going to run out of headlines or copy. 

"Power is a drug... it suits me" was perhaps his most memorable and most quoted line but we were spoiled for choice really. From his Haughey-esque realist politics, "(Politics is ruthless. And anyone who wants to get to the top has to be") to his response to Horan's assertion that there is a Michael Lowry phenomenon in Tipperary ("I’m not sure there is a phenomenon. I mean, is there an Alan Kelly phenomenon?"), it was simply magnificent. One thing that I drew from the interview is that I can't see Horan, who usually writes lifestyle pieces, getting the chance to interview him again because the Pol Corrs are going to be all over the next one. 

He's been compared to Frank Underwood quite a bit in the past week, which is understandable (given he said that the only TV programme he watches is House of Cards), but there's also a David Brent-ish quality to Kelly which makes him so irresistible to me. I don't know if it's because he refers to himself in the third person or because I am now utterly convinced that he made up that AK47 nickname himself, but I see it. You can just imagine him gamely ambling into Leinster House one morning, finding the nearest aide or intern and whispering into their ear; "Did ya hear the nickname the lads at the party meeting had for me yesterday? AK47! Ha! Like the gun but AK cos I'm Alan Kelly! Gas, isn't it? Tell the boys in PR that they'll love it."

The Jordan Belfort of North Tipp, however, had a tough end to the week. As well as allegations that he gave Newstalk's Chris Donoghue a thorough dressing down after the presenter had a one-on-one interview with Kelly's constituency nemesis Michael Lowry before a panel debate between Kelly and other general election candidates from Tipperary, he also had to deal with a patronising put-down from Labour leader Joan Burton. Burton, with Kelly by her side, after the dissolution of the Dáil on Wednesday said in reference to the infamous interview, "He is an incredibly obedient employee.... colleague, I mean!" A freudian slip? AK47 was smiling on the outside but inside I'd wager he was fuming. 

Predictably, there was much hand-wringing and condemnation of Kelly's, ahem, frankness with Horan in the Irish media over the last week. He's trying to make it all about himself. He's a liability. He's a megalomaniac. All those things might be true but is it not true that he's also a bit of craic? I mean, Irish politics can seem so mind-numbingly dull to the layman and woman at times that you need someone like Kelly to come along and inject a bit of mayhem every once in a while. I actually enjoy Irish politics but I have not read a more entertaining interview with an Irish politician in a long time. Sticking it to the national establishment while keeping his own constituency happy has worked so well for Kelly's local foe Michael Lowry maybe Kelly is onto a winning strategy? Probably not but, hey, it'll be a fun ride.


Winner of the week
The people of Ireland. For now they get to see the democratic process in all its visceral beauty; middle aged men tramping from door to door in the pissing rain telling you about the roundabout their fella 'got' for you. Who am I kidding, the real answer is me. I felt like a winner after reading Alan Kelly's interview. I read it repeatedly as part of my Motivation Monday routine.

Loser of the week
Weirdly, Fine Gael. This campaign looks like an open goal for Ireland's biggest party in some ways; the economy is growing, employment is up, unemployment is down and Phil Hogan is still banished to Brussels. But this week was nothing short of a disaster. Besides the fiscal space fiasco, they had to deal with a trademark clanger from Enda. The Fine Gael leader refused to answer a question on economics from a reporter on Wednesday replying brusquely, "I'm not going to get into economic jargon here because the vast majority of people don't understand". Oh dear. If his advisors could muzzle him, they would. According to yesterday's Red C poll, they've seen a modest increase in support but they're still a long way off the overall majority Frank Flannery predicted at the end of last year.   

The next election could be the most defining in Fianna Fáil's history; and it doesn't look good.

Receding hairline, receding chance of being in government next year.

The general election of 2011 was supposed to be a game-changer. It was historic. It was unprecedented. It was a 'democratic revolution'. But it was all a bit boring, wasn't it? I mean, the result was more or less a foregone conclusion. We knew Fianna Fáil were going to be routed. We knew the Greens would be pushed to the edge of extinction. We knew Fine Gael would win the most seats but most likely not enough for a majority government and so would have to form a coalition (again) with a newly resurgent Labour party. It was thrilling, alright, but oh so predictable. A bit like watching The Great Escape for the twentieth time and feigning surprise when Steve McQueen fails to make that jump over the barbed wire fence.

But next year's election is anything but a foregone conclusion. It's a feast of unhinged and unimaginable possibilities. Everything could change. Fine Gael are still comfortably the nation's biggest party but they're not likely to match their 2011 numbers. The rise of Sinn Féin has been one of Irish politics' most enduring themes over recent years but their poll numbers seem to have hit a glass ceiling since the dizzying highs of late 2014/early 2015 when they were at Fine Gael's coattails. Still though, they're going to be big players on the Irish political scene for years to come be it in government or, more likely, in opposition. Labour, to put it incredibly mildly, are going to take a big hit. The way things stand, Joan Burton would bite your hand off for 10 Labour TDs to be returned to Leinster House. And she'd probably bite your other hand off for her own reelection which is hanging in the balance. The Independents and smaller parties currently have the support of around 25% of the electorate and they could be the kingmakers when it comes to deciding which party leader will be heading over to politely ask Michael D to convene the 32nd Dáil next March/April/Whenever Enda gets round to it.

But the electoral story with the most intriguing themes and subplots for my money is the fate of Ireland's grand old party, Fianna Fáil. This is an absolutely pivotal election in the history of Fianna Fáil, if not the most pivotal. What makes it so special is that it is uncharted territory for Fianna Fáil; never before have they participated in a general election as the opposition party and not regained power. And that is exactly what could happen in 2016. 

For Micheál Martin is facing a political Catch 22. When the dust has settled on next year's election and there are no Fianna Fáil bums on cabinet seats then he will almost certainly be forced to resign. But entering into Government will be no easy feat, even if they perform well in the polls. The chances of them winning an outright majority are about the same as the chances of the party forming a concrete position on repealing the eighth amendment. The only conceivable way they could be the senior party in a coalition would be if they entered into a coalition with Sinn Féin and/or Labour and a harem of Independents. This is unlikely as Micheál Martin has ruled out ever working with Sinn Féin in government. And the Shinners for their part have also ruled out ever getting into bed with Fianna Fáil (Or Fine Gael for that matter). They do say never say never in politics but given the vitriol both of the party's leaders have been exchanging over the last few months, primarily on issues to do with the 1916 commemmorations and the legitimacy (or lack thereof) of the Provisional IRA's campaign during the Troubles, it would seem highly unlikely that either side would like to hop into bed with each other even if it meant a shot at power and relegating Fine Gael to the opposition bench. Labour, on the other hand, probably won't have the numbers on their own, even if both parties convinced 10 or more Independents to side with a rag tag coalition of conflicting interests. 

So that leaves us with one final possibility; a Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition. It's been talked about in hushed tones for some time now; how it might be Fianna Fáil's only viable attempt to return to some sort of power, how it might be Fine Gael's most viable attempt at retaining power if Labour really do capitulate spectacularly and, how when you step back and inspect it and disregard all that silly historical baggage, it really makes a lot of sense to everyone. The latter point is the gist of what the late Bill O'Herlihy, a Fine Gael party stalwart for many years, said during a speech at Béal na Bláth two years ago. From the Fianna Fáil side, Mary O'Rourke has in the past voiced approval at the prospect of a Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil government.  More pertinently, over two-thirds of county and city councils are controlled by alliances containing both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil councillors. And half of those alliances are contain only Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael councillors. That means that over a third of Ireland's local authorities are controlled by a Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition. So how much of a leap would it take to transport this political synergy these two parties have created to the national stage? 

Not much of a leap, one would assume, given how many TDs have been wont to proclaim that 'Civil War politics are over'. But it's not quite as simple as that. For Fianna Fáil would almost certainly be the junior partner in any coalition the two parties would form. This would be a problem for Fianna Fáil. At the beginning of the year I remember watching an episode of Claire Byrne Live and one of the topics they discussed was Fianna Fáil's performance under Micheál Martin and their prospects for the future. Niall Collins, Mary O'Rourke, Noel Whelan and another political hack whose name escapes me were on and, I can't quite remember who said it, but somebody remarked that Fianna Fáil "still think and act like they're the biggest party in the state." This sums up the problem Micheál Martin would have forming any sort of coalition with Fine Gael. It would be the bitterest of bitter pills for their supporters to swallow. It would be a moral humiliation to them. 

While many argue that the Civil War created an unnatural political division that has come to define Irish politics for too long, this division came to almost define both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. From an outsider's point of view it makes perfect sense that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael should form a coalition given the vast quantity of common ground they share on economic and social issues but to the grassroots Fianna Fáil die-hard, being a junior partner to Fine Gael would represent something close to political irrelevance. Sharing power with them on a few rural councils is one thing but nationally it would be a whole different kettle of fish.  

From the outside looking in, the Fianna Fáil grassroots supporters and cummans are at a bit of a loss currently. Of all the major parties they seem to be the ones most unsure of their position. For Fianna Fáil's identity in the past was not determined by some specific political dogma or ideology; but on being the great catch-all party, the people's party and by being bigger and more popular than Fine Gael. All that is gone now. They are now, to paraphrase Avon Barksdale, like a man without a country. The party at large is suffering from an identity crisis and no where is this more apparent than at the grassroots level. There seems to be a chasm engulfing Fianna Fáil; one force is pushing towards the New Fianna Fáil we all envisaged would arise from the disaster of 2011 while the other is pulling it back to Old Fianna Fáil. In 2011, I remember being a first year in college when my friend, who was heavily involved in the Ógra Fianna Fáil at UL, told me that the party would now be rebranding itself as a centre-left party in an attempt to counteract Fine Gael's traditional centre-right positioning and to reestablish itself in the hearts and minds of the electorate. Given their historic chameleon-like ability to adapt themselves to whatever political circumstances the party found itself in I didn't put it past them. Whether my friend was embellishing the truth or not, it didn't happen.

What's happening in the constituencies and the selection conventions illustrate what I'm talking about. The return to the fold of politicians whose names are etched onto the collective mind of the Irish electorate as being irrevocably linked with the Celtic Tiger years- Mary Hanafin, Conor Lenihan, Sean Haughey - perhaps best embodies the chasm. The returns of Hanafin and Haughey are particularly noteworthy as they resulted in the marginalisation of two young, liberal politicians who perhaps would have or could have represented New Fianna Fáil - Kate Feeney in the case of Hanafin and, most significantly, Averil Power in the case of Haughey. Power, of course, left the party in the wake of Haughey's return and said Fianna Fáil "doesn’t know what it stands for" in her statement on resigning. The introduction of the gender quotas too have wreaked havoc on Fianna Fáil like no other party. Many constituencies have been in open revolt over the perceived injustice of them. The nomination of Connie Gerety Quinn in Longford recently, who was selected automatically without a popular vote after an order came in from HQ that the running mate of sitting TD Robert Troy would have to be female, caused chaos among party members there. It is but the most recent of countless examples. 

With all this strife, being a junior partner to Fine Gael would be the nail on the coffin of any chance Fianna Fáil have of regaining even a semblance of the power and prestige they once took for granted.  There could be ways of getting around this. It has been suggested that Fianna Fáil could, as an opposition party, support a Fine Gael led minority government in exchange for "concessions on its own manifesto". They'd still be tacitly submissive to Fine Gael but not formally so like they would as junior partner in a coalition, at least. It is probably the least terrible of options on offer.

Perhaps another spell in the opposition benches would serve them well though that would almost certainly mean the departure of Martin as leader. Few tears would be shed in the parliamentary party at least but then they have the problem of choosing a successor. Michael McGrath? Niall Collins? Dara Calleary? None are particularly inspiring choices. And that perhaps best sums up Fianna Fáil's predicament at the moment; the party is at a crossroads and no route seems particularly appealing. 

Don't believe the hype: The early general election that wasn't.

Alex Turner with some words of wisdom for Enda.

This time last week the country was abuzz with rumours that a November election was on the horizon. The political parties began oiling their canvassing machines, the media worked themselves into a hot bother over who this early election would favour and the bookies slashed their odds to as short as 1/8. All the while Enda, the man with the power, toyed with the frenzied mobs with the grace of a 16 year old trying it on with Scarlett Joahansson. Before last week,everything was calm. Enda remained true to form and on point regarding any potential early election; it wasn't happening, nuh-uh, no way. 

But then, something changed. 

The hype took over. Enda probably had armies of Fine Gael advisors, councillors and TDs whispering salaciously in his ear. "Go to the country early, Enda. The budget, the economy, the tax-take, the rugby, Shane Long's goal against Germany. It's all there. Do it." Enda, as is his custom, dithered. On Monday of that fateful week he was on home turf in Mayo when he was accosted by RTE reporters inquiring about the date of the election. Enda could neither confirm nor deny it. Enda was equally ambivalent in the Dáil a day later. 

Predictably, all hell broke loose. This was almost as good as a confirmation. When the Taoiseach had been so adamant previously there would not be an early election, why would he choose to hesitate just as the gossip was reaching fever pitch? It had to be coming. Somebody in the Fine Gael camp, probably Michael Noonan, was finally after twisting his elbow.

It was anarchy and, at that, the most stupid and banal of anarchies. The Irish media fetishised the date of the election to the extent that the date actually became more important than the election itself. Constant to-ing and fro-ing over how November might suit the government because of the "good feeling" engendered by a presumed giveaway budget or whether February or March might be better because people would start "to feel it in their pockets" by then and, oh, it might be less cold too. 

Nobody knew if any of this held water. There was no historical precedents to back up these assumptions, no statistics presented, no evidence that holding the election on one of these dates would swing the election either way. It was a pantomine of conjecture and bullshit. 

So, what happened? Two things killed this early election; Labour and, more importantly, the hype. On the face of it Labour's role in stopping this election seems pivotal but, in my opinion, the hype is what ultimately put it to bed.

Labour, naturally enough, were aghast at the prospect of an early election as their poll numbers right now are about as healthy as a somebody with stage 3 lung cancer. They can't even break into their historical home of 10%-12%. If an election was called next month, Labour would be very lucky to reach double figures in seats. So they want to wait. Joan Burton had a "long conversation" with Enda (read- She got down on her hands and knees and begged him) and he seemingly listened. Will they fare much better in February or March? Who knows. They certainly can't be sure that any goodwill generated from the budget will spill over to their numbers but it's worth kicking the can down the road just to see. The thing is, Fine Gael would like to have Labour back as coalition partners again. Well, not that they'd particularly love that but it is the least worst option for them. So it's sort of in Fine Gael's interests to see Labour do at least respectfully.

But concern for Labour's potential struggle alone would not have stopped an early election plot. The hype killed it. It reached overload. It became too much. There had been rumblings about an early Autumn election in the papers as early as May but that talk was largely confined to close political circles and the kind of boring, lonely people who lurk on internet comment boards (i.e. me). By last week, every eejit and their dog were talking about it. It was all the newspapers could talk about. It was all the news programmes could talk about. People, to be expected, became sick of it.

Enda's dithering in this regard did him no favours. But here's the catch; for me, by time Enda had reached the beginning of last week with the hype just starting to peak he was fighting a losing battle. He didn't want to carry on denying there would be an election in November (which is what by that stage he presumably preferred) because if he did and he subsequently did call one he would look like an indecisive muppet and the opposition would use it as a stick to batter him with. But, at the same time, he didn't want to confirm it as he was presumably waiting to see how the budget went down before announcing anything. So he was forced into making a series of vague, non-committal statements last week which fed the hype. 

The thing is, if Enda and Fine Gael had been a bit more circumspect, a bit more measured they could have had the Autumn election they so desired. It's clear that in the weeks leading up to the budget, senior Fine Gael figures were hinting to numerous journalists that an election was on the horizon. They were leaking things left, right and centre. The hype became too much and eventually devoured itself. The whole point in a snap election is it's supposed to catch your opponents (and the electorate) off-guard. In the end, Fine Gael were about as composed as an American high-school shooter, spraying bullets of gossip indiscriminately until it all finally caught up with them. 

And so, on Sunday last, Enda Kenny appeared on The Week in Politics on RTE1 and proclaimed to all and sundry that he had not changed his mind, that the election will be in "Spring 2016" and that was always his intention. Ah Enda, innocent, innocent Enda. He's like the lad in a nightclub who's scuppered his chances with the pretty girl by drunkenly spilling four jagerbombs on her dress telling himself "I didn't fancy her anyway". Ah well. In years to come, Taoisigh who find themselves in a similar situation to Enda's last week will look back on it as a guide for How-Not-To-Call-A-Snap-Election.

For now, all the journalists and politicos can do is start taking bets on which month in Spring the election will be; "February? It's too cold but voters might want to share the love with the coalition parties on Valentine's Day. March? The weather is better but the Shinners would ride on the crest of a Republican wave..... Can we just not have it, Enda?"

Bus Éireann and Irish Rail: The Neville brothers of public transport

A visual representation of the state of Irish transport. Trains > buses.

I have often tried calculating how many bus journeys I have enjoyed/endured with Bus Éireann. I spent six years being ferried back and forth between Killarney and Tralee for secondary school. So, let's see; Every school year has a minimum of 167 days. Say I missed an average of a week of school each year (I don't think I did), that'd be 160 days. Two buses a day at 160 days means 320 bus journeys every year for six years which works out at 1920 bus journeys. Phew. When you factor in that I used to visit Tralee very regularly during the summer and winter holidays as well to visit friends, I'm easily breaking 2000 bus journeys with Bus Éireann. What an ignominious honour. 

And you know what those 2000 odd journeys have given me? A burning, seething hatred for Bus Éireann. I hate Bus Éireann so much that I, someone who when they were in first year of college was quite literally a card-carrying socialist, actually wishes they were privatised. Everything that reminds me of Bus Éireann, from that prick of a red setter to the once amusing "Stand Clear, Luggage doors operate" soundbite, makes my skin crawl. The poor service, the punctuality (or lack thereof), the exponential rise in prices every couple of years. It's now €17.50 for a single student ticket from Cork to Killarney. €17.50!

Particularly when it comes to punctuality I trust them about as much as you'd trust an alcoholic guarding a wine cellar. Two weeks ago, I needed to get a bus from Cork to Limerick. I needed to be in Limerick for 5 but I took the 2.25 bus that was scheduled to arrive into Limerick at 4. I did this because I knew, I knew, that the 3.25 bus that was scheduled to arrive in at 5  would not get me into Limerick on time. Sure enough we arrived into Limerick 45 minutes late at 4.45 but thanks to my earlier presence of mind I still made it to my appointment on time. I didn't even think this was strange initially. It was instinctive. It was only when I was on the bus, pondering ruefully the philosophy class I had missed in order to catch the earlier bus, that i thought to myself, "Hang on, this can't be normal. They don't do this in other countries, do they?" 

Now, I don't place all of the blame on the drivers and the staff at the stations, they generally do their best given the circumstances. One of the reasons the buses are always late is because our roads are so terrible. I mean, that bus from Cork to Limerick would only be 40 minutes if we had a motorway between the two cities but instead we have to travel through that triumvirate of North Cork shitholes; Mallow, Buttevant and Charleville. 

Like so many things in Ireland, our poor bus service is just symptomatic of larger problems. Lack of investment in roads. Lack of investment in motorways that don't just lead to Dublin. Lack of investment in human resources. Poor planning. There is no one reason why our bus service is so terrible; it's a veritable menagerie of cock-ups. 

Because my only real experience with public transport was Bus Éireann, I remember being absolutely blown away by the Tube and the buses the first (and only) time I was in London when I was 15. What an experience that was. If you missed one tube there was another one following it in two minutes. Sure, you were packed like sardines into them but you'd get used to that. I had never imagined them to be that good as the supposed poor quality of British public transport was a frequent punchline for British comedians on panel shows. Christ, I thought, I'd love to take them on a bus journey from Killarney to Tralee. They'd have enough material to last them for months. 

Since starting college in Cork recently I have been using Irish Rail a lot more frequently. Trains are quantifiably, undeniably nicer than buses. Leg room, toilets, tables, they've got the lot. Even Irish Rail's wi-fi is better than Bus Éireann's. One thing which caught my eye about Irish Rail is that at a lot of train stations they have posters up documenting statistically their punctuality and reliability. For instance, in Killarney Train Station, there is a poster up stating that the Killarney-Mallow train is on time 94.4% of the time while it has a 99% reliability (what 'reliability' actually means I can't remember but I presume that means that it turns up and has enough room for all passengers). Can you imagine if Bus Éireann were to publish such posters? It would be hilarious. The punctuality statistics would be an absolute rout. Would they even break 50%? I do wonder. 

But, disregarding Bus Éireann's ineptitude, rail transport is naturally superior, isn't it? As an experience, I mean. Its only letdown is it generally costs more (Though with some online offers you can get with Irish Rail that is up for debate). That and they seem to have a slightly higher proportion of mentalist passengers than buses, in my experience. But, like buses, our rail network has fallen victim to poor planning and short-term thinking too. 

In the 20th century, our railway network was superseded by the primacy of the car and of the motorway. At the beginning of the last century there were 54 train stations/stops in Kerry covering all four corners of the county. Yes, 54. Today there are four. This map will give you a good idea of just how much Ireland's rail network has receded in the last 100 years. Dublin's tramways stretched the length and breadth of the city and beyond long before most Dubs knew what the word Luas even meant. They were dug up and covered over to make way for roads, cars and buses.Maybe that's progress. The replacing of railways with cars and motorways happened in just about every other developed country in the world too. But, in my eyes, it's still a shame.

So, to finally address the point I make in the title, how exactly are Bus Éireann and Irish Rail like the Neville brothers? Well, Irish Rail is like Gary. Reliable, sturdy, consistent. Not spectacular by any means but a 7/10 performance every time. Bus Éireann is Phil. They do their best but they're limited and indecisive. You're never quite sure if they'll actually turn up. It's a bit of a ham-fisted analogy (I think I'm being very harsh on Phil Neville if I'm honest) I'll admit but, while this isn't saying much, it makes some sense in my head. 

*Disclaimer: While in parts this may read like an ad for Irish Rail it is worth remembering that both Irish Rail and Bus Éireann are subsidiaries of the statutory corporation CIE (Córas Iompar Éireann) which is itself, of course, owned by the government. So by shitting one and praising the other I'm playing a delicate balancing act.

The death of the Irish nightclub? Not if they get their act together.

It's all about product.

I can think of few jobs more difficult than running a nightclub on a busy night. From shrieking, hormonal girls with a naggin of vodka surreptitiously strapped to their thighs to herds of howling idiot lads doused in Calvin Klein and chanting incessantly, it seems exceptionally awful. With that in mind it might seem a bit cheeky for me, somebody with no experience owning, operating or indeed working in a nightclub, to lecture nightclub owners on how to improve their apparently ailing business. It'd be a bit like me giving Eamon Fitzmaurice a ring talking through where I think he went wrong tactically in the final and giving him a few tips for next year. But having spent enough time awkwardly loafing my way through nightclub corridors and attempting to dance on their dancefloors, I do feel I have some pearls of wisdom to impart.

Back in August, you may or may not remember, an article appeared online written by DJ and writer Dave Haslam documenting the precipitous increase in British nightclubs closing in the last decade. Even though his article was actually quite upbeat (he was celebrating the emergence of alternative nightlife spots like music bars and underground clubs) it led to widespread analysis of the decline in nightclubs and possible explanations as to why it was occurring. Since the popular Twisted Pepper nightclub in Dublin closed its doors shortly after Haslam's article was written, Irish journalists decided to extrapolate his analysis on UK nightclubs to Ireland and ask a question nobody was really asking before that; are Irish nightclubs dying?

A number of these articles popped up in the newspapers within a couple of days and they broadly all came to the same conclusion; yes, Irish nightclubs were dying a death. Why? Well no one could really agree but it had something to do with younger Irish people enjoying pre-drinking and Tinder a bit too much and older Irish people enjoying craft beer a bit too much (And by older I mean people in their mid-20s). These articles all seemed to be written by people who last set foot in a nightclub when corduroy trousers were in vogue and Maniac 2000 was in the charts. So why do I, somebody who has some experience in modern nightclubs, think they're struggling? As Stringer Bell would put it, it's all about the product.

To my mind, most nightclubs seem about as innovative and creative as a 15 year old drawing dicks on his friend's pencil case. Yeah, they're a deft hand at marketing on social media but when it comes to actually improving the product they have to offer they hit a bum note. Nightclubs have a tried and tested formula and they very rarely change their style. The biggest issue, more than music, vibe, anything, for most people when it comes to nightclubs is cost. Nightclubs have to show more innovation when it comes to pricing. Look, we know nightclubs need to make money but they can sometimes take the proverbial. You'd be hard pushed to find a night club that charges less than €5 on the door and many places charge upwards of €10. We all know nightclubs make most of their money off the sale of alcohol so there's no reason why they can't show more flexibility when it comes to entrance fees. Sure, if a nightclub has a special event on, maybe a popular DJ will be playing or it's New Year's Eve, then people are more willing to splash out on a ticket but on a bog-standard Saturday night people are looking for value for money. 

Late bars, which thanks to our strange liquor laws, are allowed to stay open till the same time as nightclubs (unless a nightclubs applies for a license to open later) have started popping up more and more recently and, when given a choice, I would always pick the late bar. There's usually some sort of a dancefloor, bars have better seating arrangements and outdoor facilities and, most importantly, it's rare you'll be charged more than a fiver for entry. Win-win-win!

So what can nightclubs do? They have to show more innovation. I know that sounds overly-simplistic and I'm beginning to sound like Steve Jobs but here's what I basically mean; nightclubs have to show that what they can offer is unique to what bars can offer. They have to introduce new ways of enticing customers. Drinks offers are an obvious avenue. Something which has caught my eye in recent months is stock exchange. Stock exchange is something which I've heard a number of nightclubs, including Voodoo Rooms in Cork and Queens in Ennis, introduce. What happens is this; the drinks counter has a ticker running across it showing the price of drinks. The prices go up and go down. Every so often the 'market' crashes and you could be getting something like a shot of Sambuca for €2. The possibility of a stampede which it creates notwithstanding, this is a rather brilliant idea. I'm not sure who came up with it, if it's an Irish invention or not, but this is what nightclubs need more of. Give people a reason to want to go clubbing.

As Haslam and many Irish commentators pointed out, there has been a growth in what you would term "alternative venues". Craft bars, raves, underground clubs and everything in between. Basically, the last 10 years have seen an exponential growth in establishments which cater for more alternative taste which didn't really exist previously. But I believe there is still a market for middle-of-the-road, catch-all nightclubs as long as they evolve. The onus is on them, not on the consumer, to change.

There are other, less obvious things nightclubs can do. The smoking ban has been in effect for over a decade now yet many nightclubs are remarkably behind the curve when it comes to accommodating smokers. Even though most owners understandably want their patrons inside, next to the dancefloor and, more importantly, next to the bar counter so they'll spend €6 on a knock-off Jagerbomb, the reality is many people are going to spend most of the night in the smoking area. 

So, with that in mind, why is that the majority of nightclubs have smoking areas that you wouldn't let a cow calve in? They're almost always dank, cramped and miserable with very little in the way of seating arrangements. Now, I don't mean to namedrop (but I'm going to) but the Tralee nightclub formerly known as Fabric now known as Quarters which recently reopened, newly refurbished, after a four year hiatus is an example of how to get a smoking area right. The old smoking area in Fabric was pretty grim. The new one in Quarters is bright, spacious and even has plenty in the way of seating arrangements. It's a really lovely spot. Now, I know it's difficult. Not every nightclub has that kind of money to play around with but I would urge nightclub owners to be more accommodating. You may not see the results immediately on the balance sheet but it will make your club more attractive to a whole range of people, I guarantee it. 

Look, it's no easy road but I don't see this as some great generational shift brought about by tinder and low-priced alcohol available in supermarkets which has resulted in young people shunning nightclubs. Nightclubs need to prove that they're value for money. They need to be smarter in their pricing, more ambitious with new initiatives and more accommodating. It's tough. And it's probably not as simple as I'm making out but, I reiterate, it's on the nightclubs not the consumers to change.